Learning to Trust My Forecasts
12 Mile Creek. Erie, PA.
Photo by me.
Bill - The Wx Learner - October 20, 2025
This post isn’t my normal teaching post, It’s what’s been on my mind. Lately I’ve been thinking a lot about what it means to learn forecasting, especially in public like I am. You are watching me figure it out in real time.
When I first started attempting to forecast the weather, I had no idea what I was doing. I still feel that way sometimes. All of the models to look at, all the parameters to check, all the data. It was overwhelming. Trying to figure out what they all meant and how they all worked together seemed like too much.
As time went on and I learned more about what the data meant, I started to understand it better and become a little more confident in what I was predicting. The thing with looking at the models is that they all tell a story, and my job is to figure out what that story is. What’s it telling me? And with the atmosphere being so dynamic and complex, it feels like a daunting task. When I do think something is going to happen, I second-guess myself. I find myself checking the same model over and over, trying to figure out what I missed. I have such a fear of being wrong. It kept me from sharing what I thought was going to happen. Posting my forecasts on this blog is the first time I have ever shared a forecast with anyone. It was hard for me because I don’t want to fail.
The thing I have come to realize is that forecasting isn’t about being certain. It’s about making your best call with the data you are given. You have to trust what you know and stick by it, even if the models aren’t saying the same thing. They aren’t always right. And if I am wrong, I am learning from it. The atmosphere can change very quickly; something can happen that you never see coming. There is nothing you can do about that. You have to be OK with getting it wrong. And when I do get it wrong, it doesn’t mean I’m a failure or that I’m not going to be a good meteorologist. It just means I am learning.
As I’ve continued to forecast, I’ve started to notice real progress. With each forecast, I am finding my confidence grow. I am learning what to look for in the models. I am learning how to apply what I’ve learned in classes to the maps and how to use that knowledge to make better forecasts. I still struggle with a lot of it. I overanalyze my forecasts and double-check the models numerous times to make sure I’m seeing things the right way. I change my forecast numerous times, especially when calculating the chance of precipitation. But I am growing and getting better at it.
What I have learned so far is that I am not always going to know what the atmosphere is going to do. I am not always going to agree with the models. I just have to trust my gut and be OK with being wrong. With each forecast, I am understanding the atmosphere a little bit more.